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Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil transit. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April now at 1.4% YES.

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, lowering the chance of a US blockade lift announcement by May 31, 2026 to 76% YES.

US naval blockade of Iran continues, making military action unlikely before April 2026. Military action ends by April 30 at 14.5% YES.

Bulgaria's election exit polls show Rumen Radev's coalition likely winning. Radev as next Prime Minister at 95.9% YES.

S&P 500 hits record high amid US-Israel-Iran conflict and oil at $96. Market for higher open on April 17 at 100% YES.

Bitcoin falls below $74K as Iran-U.S. peace talks stall. Bitcoin above $60K by April 19 at 99.9% YES.

Iran warns of potential escalation, impacting peace deal prospects. Permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026 at 16.5% YES.

Iran conflict raises FX hedging concerns for Asia-Pacific economies. Bank of Japan decreases rates after April 2026 at 0.1% YES.

Iran conflict has limited impact on markets. SPY up on April 17 at 100% YES; Bitcoin above $62K on April 18 at 99.9% YES.

China's GDP ratio to the US drops to 64% amid a real estate crisis. China GDP growth in Q1 2026 at 0.9% YES.