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Iran fired warning shots at a French vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. UK warships transiting the Strait by April 30 at 9% YES.

Iran refuses talks as the U.S. blockade continues. Blockade lifted by May 31 at 78% YES.

Military activities in the Strait of Hormuz are raising bets on oil prices, with WTI crude hitting $160 in April at 1.4% YES.

Large pro-government rallies in Tehran indicate strong regime support. Odds for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 at 4% YES.

Pope Leo XIV condemned the US missile strike on an Iranian school, with the market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 at 100% YES.

US-Iran diplomatic gaps are narrowing. No qualifying meeting by June 30 at 3.7% YES; Bitcoin above $62K on April 18 at 99.9% YES.

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, trapping sailors and halting transit. Fewer than 10 ships to transit from April 13-19 at 0.4% YES.

Israeli forces killed a person crossing the "yellow line" in Lebanon. Ceasefire by April 30, 2026 at 100% YES.

Iran accused the US of breaching commitments amid rising tensions. Odds of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, are at 4% YES.

US captures Iranian vessel in Gulf of Oman; Tehran threatens retaliation. Ceasefire by April 30 at 33% YES.