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Hezbollah attacked northern Israel, raising doubts about the ceasefire. Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 at 100% YES.

US Vice President Vance cancels Pakistan trip amid US-Iran peace uncertainty. Permanent peace deal by April 30 at 21.5% YES.

US confirms Trump tariffs on Mexico are permanent. EU retaliatory tariffs by September 30 at 0% YES.

Iran skipped US talks in Pakistan, complicating ceasefire efforts; ceasefire breakdown by April 21 at 100% YES.

Trump was denied access to nuclear codes during a Pentagon meeting, leading to U.S. invasion of Iran odds at 73% YES.

Iran remains undecided on US peace talks, causing the ceasefire by April 30 market to drop to 30.5% YES.

Florida AG investigates OpenAI over ChatGPT's alleged role in a 2025 shooting plot. GPT-5.5 release by June 30 at 97.8% YES.

$CHIP token launched amid a crypto rally following a US-Iran ceasefire. USD.AI's FDV exceeding $300M one day after launch at 98.8% YES.

US recalled its ambassador to Israel amid Iran tensions. No US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at 3.6% YES.

Iran calls US naval blockade an 'act of war,' raising tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by June 30 at 82.5% YES.