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US Treasury yields rise amid escalating US-Iran tensions. No change in Fed rates after July 2026 at 80.5% YES.

US pauses Iran talks with 10 days left before ceasefire deadline. Ceasefire by April 30 at 22.5% YES.

Michael Saylor announced Strategy's $3.6 billion Bitcoin gain, with Bitcoin above $66,000 on April 21 at 99.9% YES.

Hezbollah attacked northern Israel, raising doubts about the ceasefire. Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 at 100% YES.

US Vice President Vance cancels Pakistan trip amid US-Iran peace uncertainty. Permanent peace deal by April 30 at 21.5% YES.

US confirms Trump tariffs on Mexico are permanent. EU retaliatory tariffs by September 30 at 0% YES.

Iran skipped US talks in Pakistan, complicating ceasefire efforts; ceasefire breakdown by April 21 at 100% YES.

Trump was denied access to nuclear codes during a Pentagon meeting, leading to U.S. invasion of Iran odds at 73% YES.

Iran remains undecided on US peace talks, causing the ceasefire by April 30 market to drop to 30.5% YES.

Florida AG investigates OpenAI over ChatGPT's alleged role in a 2025 shooting plot. GPT-5.5 release by June 30 at 97.8% YES.