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Spot gold drops 3% amid Iran conflict and strong US dollar. Gold at $8,000 by June priced at 29% YES.

Starmer's leadership is under threat due to the Mandelson scandal, with the market for him leaving office by December 31, 2026 at 67% YES.

IRGC showcased missiles in Tehran amid low expectations for Israeli military action. Israel conducting military action against Iran by April 21 at 1.9% YES.

Tucker Carlson apologized for his Trump support, leading the market to signal a 100% chance Trump will publicly insult Carlson by April 30, 2026.

US Treasury yields rise amid escalating US-Iran tensions. No change in Fed rates after July 2026 at 80.5% YES.

US pauses Iran talks with 10 days left before ceasefire deadline. Ceasefire by April 30 at 22.5% YES.

Michael Saylor announced Strategy's $3.6 billion Bitcoin gain, with Bitcoin above $66,000 on April 21 at 99.9% YES.

Hezbollah attacked northern Israel, raising doubts about the ceasefire. Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 at 100% YES.

US Vice President Vance cancels Pakistan trip amid US-Iran peace uncertainty. Permanent peace deal by April 30 at 21.5% YES.

US confirms Trump tariffs on Mexico are permanent. EU retaliatory tariffs by September 30 at 0% YES.