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Iran's conditional openness to talks hasn't improved ceasefire odds. Ceasefire by April 30 at 26% YES.

IRGC has sidelined Iran's president and taken control of state functions. Iranian regime fall by June 30 rises to 8.5% YES.

Trump extends the U.S. blockade on Iran as ceasefire talks stall. Ceasefire breach by April 21 at 100% YES.

Trump halted strikes against Iran, citing internal issues. Permanent peace deal by April 22 now at 1.9% YES, while by May 31 it rises to 55.5% YES.

Democracy Forward's FOIA request increases scrutiny on Kash Patel. Patel out by June 30 at 62.5% YES.

US Treasury imposes new sanctions on Iran weapon suppliers. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April at 27% YES.

Spot gold drops 3% amid Iran conflict and strong US dollar. Gold at $8,000 by June priced at 29% YES.

Starmer's leadership is under threat due to the Mandelson scandal, with the market for him leaving office by December 31, 2026 at 67% YES.

IRGC showcased missiles in Tehran amid low expectations for Israeli military action. Israel conducting military action against Iran by April 21 at 1.9% YES.

Tucker Carlson apologized for his Trump support, leading the market to signal a 100% chance Trump will publicly insult Carlson by April 30, 2026.