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Polymarket follows Kalshi into perps, teasing 10x leveraged trading access as prediction markets push deeper into crypto derivatives.

North Korea's Lazarus Group laundered $290 million in crypto. Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April now at 36.5% YES, down from 44%.

Trump extended the Iran ceasefire, leading to a drop in odds for ending military operations by April 30 to 21.5% YES.

U.S. military operations against Iran continue, causing ceasefire odds to drop to 21.5% YES for an end by April 30.

UAE becomes the sixth-largest sovereign Bitcoin holder with a $900M investment. Bitcoin reaching $80K in April 2026 at 34.5% YES.

Iran reports US signals to end the blockade, but talks are stalled; ceasefire by April 30 at 26% YES.

Iran's conditional openness to talks hasn't improved ceasefire odds. Ceasefire by April 30 at 26% YES.

IRGC has sidelined Iran's president and taken control of state functions. Iranian regime fall by June 30 rises to 8.5% YES.

Trump extends the U.S. blockade on Iran as ceasefire talks stall. Ceasefire breach by April 21 at 100% YES.

Trump halted strikes against Iran, citing internal issues. Permanent peace deal by April 22 now at 1.9% YES, while by May 31 it rises to 55.5% YES.