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Israeli forces killed a person crossing the "yellow line" in Lebanon. Ceasefire by April 30, 2026 at 100% YES.

Iran accused the US of breaching commitments amid rising tensions. Odds of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, are at 4% YES.

US captures Iranian vessel in Gulf of Oman; Tehran threatens retaliation. Ceasefire by April 30 at 33% YES.

Oil prices rose due to Middle East instability and an uncertain US-Iran ceasefire. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April at 1.4% YES.

US-Iran tensions rise, affecting Bank of Japan rate cut speculation. Rate cut after April 2026 meeting at 0.1% YES.

Judge blocks Trump's pipeline restart, complicating oil sanction strategy. Odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April at 33.5% YES.

Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria leads with 44.5% in the parliamentary election. Radev to be next prime minister at 95.3% YES.

US enforces a naval blockade in the Persian Gulf, causing ship traffic to drop significantly. UK sending warships through Hormuz by April 30 at 9% YES.

US warns of possible strikes on Iran's infrastructure if no nuclear deal is reached. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April at 1.8% YES.

Shipping in the Persian Gulf has dropped to 5 ships daily amid an IRGC blockade. Fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at 99.8% YES.