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US delegations arrive in Islamabad for potential Iran talks. No diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at 96.3% YES.

Aave's Total Value Locked drops to $17 billion after KelpDAO exploit triggers $8.4 billion in withdrawals. Ethereum reaching $10,000 by 2026 at 4% YES.

Iran's regime remains under strain 100 days after protests. Odds for regime fall by April 30 at 1.2% YES.

Rumen Radev's coalition leads exit polls with 37-39% of the vote. Radev as next Prime Minister of Bulgaria at 94.8% YES.

US military fired on Iranian cargo ship Touska, raising tensions. Fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by April 19 at 0.4% YES.

Bitcoin surged past $78K as a US-Iran deal nears completion. Bitcoin above $68K on April 16 is at 100% YES.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1 billion in inflows last week. Bitcoin reaching $80K by April 2026 is now at 32.5% YES.

Iran's maritime tensions led to a drop in the market for a US-Iran peace deal, now at 19.5% YES.

U.S. forces destroyed a drug vessel in the Caribbean, reducing odds for U.S. military action in 2026 to 16% YES.

UAE requests US financial aid amid rising tensions with Iran. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April now at 35.5% YES.