Trump feared a hostage crisis after a US jet was downed in Iran, lowering the chance of a peace deal by April 22 to 13.5% YES.
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#iran / Page 2
US unilateral decisions are straining Gulf relations. Military action by a Gulf state against Iran by April 30, 2026 at 6% YES.
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting shipping routes. Transit of 80 ships by April 30 now at 22.5% YES.
Yemen's Houthis declared "high alert" amid rising tensions, with Israeli military action against Iran by April 21 now at 15.2% YES.
Iran doubles down on closing the Strait of Hormuz as the ceasefire inches toward expiration ...
Iran's internet blackout reaches 51 days, indicating regime stability. Regime fall by May 31 at 3.5% YES.
Analyze the current state of Iran's Internet access as citizens grapple with severe censorship and crippling economic consequences.
Israel stated it is "locked, loaded" for potential military action against Iran. Military action by April 21 at 10.8% YES.
Qatar warns of a global shock from Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. Agreement to surrender uranium by April 30 at 29% YES.
'You gave me clearance to go. My name is second on your list. You are firing now. Let me turn back.'