clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

NFL Toxic Differential Plus Through Week 15

Tracking team health throughout the entire NFL by tracking the big plays!

Buffalo Bills v Detroit Lions Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Jeff Berckes has been covering the Bears since 2015, and is an owner and host for the 2nd City Gridiron video and podcast channels.

Welcome to Week 15 of Toxic Differential Plus.

Click on the link above to get a more detailed explanation of the stat or roll with the equation below:

Explosive Play Differential + 2(Turnover Differential) + Sack Differential = Toxic Differential Plus

Some major changes to the visual today. On the first page, chart on the right, I’ve changed the three categories to teams that have clinched a playoff spot in teal, teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs in orange, and everyone else in purple. We’ll call those teams “Bubble/Hunt” for lack of a better term. We’ll continue to lose purple teams over the next few weeks until we get our final visual.

Page two is a new addition. A table on the right charts out every team’s TD+ by week. Blue boxes mean the team won that game, orange a loss, and the orchid color indicates a bye week. The chart on the left tally’s the W/L of all games by TD+. As one can imagine, as the value of the TD+ grows, the record improves.

Teams that won the TD+ this week went 14-2 with the Chicago Bears somehow getting blown out by the Minnesota Vikings but maintaining an edge in the stat. The 2024 Chicago Bears - continuing to find creative new ways to lose football games.

We’re bringing back the breakout charts for each component number in slides 3-5. One note is that I added a half sack to the Bears dot just so you can see it. They were completely eclipsed by the Browns as they share the same value. If there are other fewer than 32 dots on these slides, it is because the circles overlap and this software won’t let me click a button to show all points even with overlap. If I find more, I’ll free them.